Zitat des Tages von Ray Dalio:
The big question is: When will the term structure of interest rates change? That's the question to be worried about.
Imagine if you had baseball cards that showed all the performance stats for your people: batting averages, home runs, errors, ERAs, win/loss records. You could see what they did well and poorly and call on the right people to play the right positions in a very transparent way.
Almost everything is like a machine.
I'm just saying that if you understand how the economic machine works, it just works like a machine. There are cause-effect relationships.
It all comes down to interest rates. As an investor, all you're doing is putting up a lump-sump payment for a future cash flow.
I'm going to give away a lot more than half my money. I'd be happy to give that to the government if the government put together programs that were like I'm giving away to charity, in which I believe the money is effectively used to help people.
If inflation-adjusted interest rates decline in a given country, its currency is likely to decline.
Constantly probe the people who report to you, and encourage them to probe you.
Treat your life like a game.
He who lives by the crystal ball will eat shattered glass.
The main reason I write the daily observations is because I want to know where I'm wrong. So lots of times if somebody points something out it helps me, and I want to have a diversified bet of uncorrelated bets.
I notice a difference from the moment I meditate.
I pay about a third in taxes, I give away about a third, and I follow the law.
If it didn't happen in your life before, then you're not paying attention you don't think it's possible. But almost all important events never happen in your life before.
Nature is a machine. The family is a machine. The life cycle is like a machine.
Know what your people are like, and make sure they do their jobs excellently.
Look at what caused people to make a lot of money and you will see that usually it is in proportion to their production of what the society wanted.
Maintain 'baseball cards' and/or 'believability matrixes' for your people. Imagine if you had baseball cards that showed all the performance stats. You could see what they did well and poorly and call on the right people to play the right positions in a very transparent way.
I think so many people are reactive... they see things in a short term way they're right up against it.
Pull in your belt, spend less, and reduce debt.
I worry about another leg down in the economies causing social disruption because deleveragings can be very painful - it depends on how they're managed.
So how does the machine work that you have a financial crisis? How does deleveraging work - what is the nature of that machine? And what is human nature, and how do you raise a community of people to run a business?
Credit is a promise to deliver money. It will produce GDP but you'll create credit... So you reach a certain point that that you can't do that anymore... There are choices. And how do we best support, apportion the money? How much is going to be transferred?
Over the long run, the price of gold approximates the total amount of money in circulation divided by the size of the gold stock. If the market price of gold moves a long way from this level, it may indicate a buying or selling opportunity.
