Zitat des Tages von Clive Granger:
I wonder if economics has less basic core material than is necessary for fields such as mathematics, physics, or chemistry, say.
Forecasts vary in horizon, from a few seconds up to a few days in financial markets, compared to from one to several months for macro variables. We have to provide uncertainty intervals around the central forecasts to indicate the extent to which we are unclear about the future.
A potentially useful property of forecasts based on cointegration is that when extended some way ahead, the forecasts of the two series will form a constant ratio, as is expected by some asymptotic economic theory.
There are many types of economic data, but the type considered by Rob Engle and myself is know as time series.
I think it is true to say that I am not the first Nobel Prize winner in economics to have little formal training in economics.